Description

This analysis provides a forecast of ETC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-04-27 11.208500 12.851666 14.625095 16.678008 18.985500 21.495442 24.428652
2025-05-04 8.672857 10.865271 13.418776 16.598901 20.438539 24.909203 30.492105
2025-05-11 7.270010 9.647717 12.556449 16.351429 21.143813 26.963925 34.532957
2025-05-18 6.309454 8.816696 12.021090 16.376895 22.097407 29.302516 39.004519
2025-05-25 5.641156 8.244546 11.700018 16.565101 23.170680 31.749820 43.643022
2025-06-01 5.026117 7.660203 11.281490 16.548017 23.919884 33.765066 47.776752
2025-06-08 4.471403 7.089714 10.810064 16.386625 24.415684 35.417063 51.454870
2025-06-15 4.087557 6.721628 10.579354 16.523202 25.302274 37.612043 55.947165
2025-06-22 3.845331 6.537926 10.591704 16.995433 26.673785 40.528032 61.563219
2025-06-29 3.471832 6.109020 10.193189 16.810931 27.048328 42.011237 65.170904
2025-07-06 3.005932 5.482869 9.433610 16.006006 26.420208 41.970100 66.515539
2025-07-13 2.848882 5.353326 9.446150 16.403470 27.645358 44.724426 72.114708
2025-07-20 2.679463 5.191941 9.401702 16.717530 28.776423 47.421186 77.805205
2025-07-27 2.450170 4.902929 9.121174 16.621779 29.242286 49.111092 82.025877
2025-08-03 2.221977 4.591402 8.773272 16.379662 29.439805 50.367655 85.596615
2025-08-10 2.059263 4.385208 8.590836 16.403193 30.070279 52.330196 90.356063
2025-08-17 1.936438 4.242785 8.509133 16.592364 30.982550 54.777888 95.984181
2025-08-24 1.795955 4.051271 8.321247 16.575014 31.530290 56.639676 100.719477
2025-08-31 1.649908 3.833479 8.065843 16.413468 31.808503 58.052261 104.753844
2025-09-07 1.553413 3.708558 7.976508 16.550216 32.617620 60.386403 110.410411
2025-09-14 1.502678 3.676019 8.063607 17.023149 34.054477 63.849601 118.107649
2025-09-21 1.384182 3.483764 7.818200 16.838374 34.268607 65.190684 122.202718
2025-09-28 1.214166 3.157997 7.275505 16.032270 33.273402 64.349945 122.457002